AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. State Department official and diplomat and former executive director of the Non-Proliferation Treaty at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told ABNA News Agency, in an analysis of Trump’s claims about reviving Iran’s nuclear facilities and programs and Netanyahu’s objectives in traveling to the United States, that Netanyahu had several goals, most of which appear to have been achieved.
According to Fitzpatrick, Netanyahu sought Trump’s approval for the disarmament of Hamas as the most important step in the Gaza peace plan.
He also aimed to highlight Trump’s unconditional support for Israel and for himself personally, and to obtain a green light for another attack on Iran. Ultimately, Netanyahu also attempted to secure Trump’s commitment to joining an attack against Iran, although on this point, Trump’s commitment was conditional.
Fitzpatrick said Trump stated that he had “heard” Iran was attempting to rebuild its strategic forces, but immediately added, “I hope that does not happen.”
“To the best of my knowledge,” Fitzpatrick said, “there is no doubt that Iran is rebuilding its missile launch capacity.”
He continued that, regarding Iran’s nuclear program, although there are unverified reports claiming it is being rebuilt and even an Italian think tank has alleged that Iran’s leader ordered the construction of missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, he remains skeptical of such conclusions without further evidence.
How much evidence Trump requires to believe such claims, he added, is a separate matter. At present, Trump likely has little desire to enter another war in the Middle East, as his primary focus is on the Western Hemisphere, particularly Venezuela.
Responding to a question about whether Israel’s focus on Iran’s missile program represents a calculated substitute for the nuclear issue in order to secure political and legal support from the United States and the West, Fitzpatrick said Israel’s emphasis on Iran’s missile program is logical because Iran has demonstrated that Israel’s missile defense systems are not impenetrable.
He added that a 15 to 20 percent missile penetration rate toward the end of the war was concerning. While this level of penetration does not pose a threat equivalent to a nuclear attack, it does show that Iran’s ballistic missiles are capable of inflicting real damage on Israeli infrastructure, a danger Israelis are not accustomed to facing.
Fitzpatrick noted, however, that Israel exaggerates the Iranian missile threat to generate sympathy and support in Washington. Until recently, he said, the United States did not place significant importance on Iran’s missiles, as they were not considered a serious threat to U.S. national interests.
He added that Trump has now placed Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities within the same framework, saying that if they are rebuilt, both should be targeted. This approach, Fitzpatrick said, reflects an expansion of U.S. military objectives against Iran.
Asked about the level of readiness of the United States, and Trump in particular, to bear the costs of a direct and high-risk confrontation with Iran, Fitzpatrick said Trump likely does not believe that another military conflict with Iran would impose high costs on the United States. The United States suffered no significant casualties during the June airstrikes, and Trump did not face substantial domestic backlash.
He warned that there is a risk that Trump could reach the incorrect conclusion that military action against Iran is cost-free.
In response to a question about whether Israeli analysts’ acknowledgment of the inefficiency of missile defense systems against large-scale Iranian attacks indicates a shift in the balance of deterrence in Tehran’s favor, Fitzpatrick said, “Yes, missile penetration rates inevitably change the deterrence balance, although the change is relative.”
He added that Israel still enjoys deterrence superiority, but that is not sufficient for Israeli leaders, as Israel seeks absolute deterrence. For this reason, he said, Israel appears to be preparing for another attack.
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